Rwanda forecasts above-average rainfall for Umuhindo season, with some areas expecting up to 1,000mm

By The Inspirer.

Rwanda is bracing for an unusually wet Umuhindo season, with Meteo Rwanda forecasting rainfall of between 300 and 1,000 millimetres from September to December 2026, above the long-term average for the period.

The forecast, released on August 21, comes as the country prepares for the September-December rainy season and points to a significant shift in weather conditions in the coming months.

Meteo Rwanda Director General Aimable Gahigi said the expected rainfall could resemble patterns recorded during the 1997 and 2023 rainy seasons.

The agency expects rainfall to be relatively low in September before increasing during the remaining months of the season.

The long-term average rainfall for Umuhindo is between 279mm and 962mm, meaning the upper end of this year’s forecast would exceed the historical range.

The highest rainfall totals, ranging from 800mm to 1,000mm, are expected in Nyamasheke District, western parts of Rutsiro and Karongi, western and southern parts of Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru, and eastern parts of Rusizi.

Rainfall between 300mm and 450mm is expected in parts of the Southern and Eastern provinces and the City of Kigali.

Gahigi attributed the expected increase in rainfall to conditions in the Pacific and Indian oceans, which are expected to contribute to increased atmospheric moisture and influence the movement of moist winds towards the region.

The forecast could bring relief to farmers, particularly in areas that have experienced dry conditions, but authorities are also warning communities to prepare for possible flooding, landslides, soil erosion and other weather-related hazards.

A senior official responsible for monitoring and preparedness at the ministry in charge of emergency management urged residents to take preventive measures before the rains intensify.

“Although we cannot stop the rain from falling, we can reduce its impacts if we prepare well and early,” the official said.

The official said early preparedness would help protect lives, reduce damage to property and infrastructure, safeguard crops and livestock and lower the cost of emergency response and reconstruction.

Farmers have also been encouraged to prepare their fields ahead of the season, which is important for crops such as maize and rice that require adequate moisture.

The forecast comes against the backdrop of significant losses caused by disasters in Rwanda. In 2025, disasters killed 130 people across the country, while about 1,800 houses were damaged, crops covering approximately 1,100 hectares were affected and more than 1,002 livestock died.

Meteo Rwanda’s latest outlook therefore presents both opportunities and risks: the expected rains could support agriculture and replenish water resources, but heavier-than-usual rainfall will require communities and authorities to strengthen preparedness for potential disasters.