Rwanda projects 6.8% economic growth in 2026 amid global headwinds

By The Inspirer.

Rwanda is projecting economic growth of 6.8% in 2026, with authorities attributing the outlook to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their ripple effects on global commodity prices, trade flows, transport costs, and financial transfers.

The forecast was presented on Monday, May 11, 2026, by the Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Yusuf Murangwa, while tabling the 2026/2027 budget framework before Parliament.

Despite external pressures, officials project stronger medium-term performance, with growth expected to reach 7.2% in 2027 and stabilise at around 7% thereafter.

Industry is expected to remain the main driver of growth, expanding by 11.5% in 2026, 11.1% in 2027, and 8.3% in 2028, supported by manufacturing expansion and infrastructure investment. Agriculture is projected to grow by 3.7% in 2026, rising to 4.8% in 2027 and 5.3% in 2028, while services are forecast to expand by 6.1%, 6.5%, and 7% over the same period.

Inflation is expected to remain above 8% in early 2026 before gradually stabilising within the National Bank of Rwanda’s target range of 2% to 8% in the medium term, as global food and commodity prices ease.

The trade deficit is projected to widen to 34.5% in 2026, driven mainly by increased imports of construction materials linked to major infrastructure projects, before narrowing sharply to 8% in 2027 as import demand normalises.

Authorities say the fiscal framework prioritises resilience to external shocks, disciplined public spending, and continued support for strategic sectors, including sustained backing for national carrier RwandAir.

The full 2026/2027 budget is expected to be submitted to Parliament for approval in June 2026.