Late rains in Rwanda expected to last into early 2027

By Michel Nkurunziza.

Rwanda recorded below-average rainfall from September to mid-October, but the rains that set in during October are expected to continue into early 2027, according to the Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda).

The Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) says the prolonged rainy season could give farmers more time to grow their crops and secure a good harvest.

Gahigi Aimable, Director General of Meteo Rwanda, said many people had expected El Niño to bring heavy rainfall immediately, but the delayed onset of the rains in September had been forecast.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern marked by above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. These changes affect atmospheric circulation and can shift rainfall patterns around the world. Depending on its strength and the stage of the season, El Niño can bring heavier rainfall to some regions and less to others.

Gahigi said rainfall had increased in parts of the country since the rains set in, with some areas recording more than 400 millimetres. One millimetre of rainfall is equivalent to one litre of water falling on each square metre of ground, meaning 400 millimetres is equivalent to about 400 litres per square metre. Meteo Rwanda expects rainfall in November and December to exceed the amounts recorded in September and October.

He cautioned that a wet season does not mean it will rain every day.

“It can rain today, followed by a day without rain,” he said.

Meteorologists assess a season by comparing its total rainfall with the long-term average. El Niño increases the likelihood of above-normal rainfall totals rather than guaranteeing rain on consecutive days. Gahigi added that El Niño could worsen the impacts of climate change that the country was already experiencing.

He said there was more than a 90 per cent probability that El Niño conditions would persist until February 2027.

Farmers adjust their plans

Kamana Olivier, Permanent Secretary at MINAGRI, said the late onset of the rains had affected the timing of farming activities, but the prolonged season could give farmers extra time to grow crops. Farmers had been advised to use the period before the rains for other preparations, including clearing anti-erosion ditches, he said.

“Rains used to start in September. This year, they started in October, but they are expected to continue until January. This means that although the late rains affected planting, farmers may be able to harvest in January instead of December because the rainy season will also be prolonged,” he said.

MINAGRI plans to have farmers across the country adopt conservation agriculture on 100,000 hectares during Season 2027A, which runs from September 2026 to February 2027, as the country prepares for heavy rainfall associated with El Niño.

Kamana said mobile harvesting and drying machines would be deployed to help farmers handle their produce and reduce post-harvest losses during the prolonged rainy season. He warned, however, that excessive rainfall could damage some crops, particularly rice grown in marshlands, where flooding could reduce production.

Farmers have also been urged to take out crop and livestock insurance to protect their investments against weather-related losses.

“That is why cooperatives, including maize cooperatives, must embrace crop insurance,” Kamana said.

Farmers whose crops were affected by the delayed rains in September could consider replanting, he added, with sweet potatoes among the recommended alternative crops.

Preparing for floods and landslides

While a prolonged rainy season could benefit agriculture, it also increases the risk of floods, landslides, strong winds and other weather-related disasters.

Rukebanuka Adalbert, Director General in charge of Policy, Planning and Risk Reduction at the Ministry in charge of Emergency Management (MINEMA), said the rains had already caused deaths and damage in different parts of the country.

“Rains have started to cause damage. So far, 23 people have lost their lives from September to the end of October. Some died in mines affected by flooding, while others were killed by lightning, strong winds, river flooding and landslides,” he said.

He said the ministry had assessed disaster-prone areas and deployed staff to monitor high-risk locations daily, including river water levels.

“Weather forecasts covering one day and 10 days guide us on the immediate measures required,” he said.

He identified districts in the Western and Northern provinces, as well as Nyamagabe, Nyaruguru and Muhanga districts in the Southern Province, as areas that frequently experience floods and landslides. Even areas that receive relatively little rainfall can experience flooding, he noted, when rivers flowing from wetter areas burst their banks.

Other climate drivers

Beyond El Niño, rainfall in the region is also influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which refers to differences in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. During a positive IOD, warmer waters near East Africa encourage rising air and cloud formation, potentially bringing more rainfall to parts of the region.

Rwanda’s farmers adapt to a disrupted planting season

In Kigeyo Sector, in Rutsiro District, Western Province, farmers described prolonged sunshine, delayed rainfall, strong winds and hail. For Munganyinka Belancilla, the disruption came after a satisfactory bean harvest last year. This season, she fears there will be little left to harvest.

“There has been too much sunshine. After the prolonged sunshine, when the rains finally came, they brought disasters that destroyed our crops. In short, we will get no harvest,” she said.

Belancilla said she had never heard of El Niño. Had she known about the risks, she believes she would have sought agricultural insurance. She hopes to obtain insurance cover before the next planting season.

Other farmers took precautions after receiving warnings. Dusabemariya Christine, who grows beans, sweet potatoes, cassava and bananas, said some crops had begun to recover when the rains arrived. After residents were advised to secure their roofs, she reinforced hers and improved erosion-control measures in her fields.

“We welcomed the information and responded by strengthening erosion-control measures in our fields to prevent excess water from accumulating,” she said.

Hakizimana Théoneste  said farmers who would normally plant in August were still sowing in November, when many would ordinarily be preparing to harvest. The rains began in October, he said, but strong winds and hail damaged some crops that had survived the dry spell.

Innocent Kamayirese , an environmental protection officer in Rutsiro District, said many residents described weather hazards using familiar terms, such as heavy rain, strong winds and hail. Their accounts highlight the importance of ensuring that weather warnings explain the practical steps people can take, from protecting roofs and fields to considering crop insurance.