Russia cautions against speculation after Azerbaijan airlines crash

BBC News.

The Russian government has urged against speculation surrounding the cause of a fatal crash involving a Russia-bound Azerbaijan Airlines flight in Kazakhstan, which killed 38 people on Wednesday.

Aviation experts and Azerbaijani officials have suggested the possibility of the plane being struck by a Russian missile over Chechnya. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized the need to await the official investigation’s findings, stating, “It would be wrong to put forward any hypotheses before the investigation’s conclusions. No one should do this.”

The Embraer 190 aircraft departed from Baku, Azerbaijan, on Wednesday morning, en route to Grozny, Chechnya. Foggy conditions reportedly forced the pilot to attempt multiple landings in Grozny before being redirected to Aktau, a city in western Kazakhstan, approximately 450km (280 miles) to the east.

The plane crashed near Aktau, 3km (1.9 miles) short of the runway, and burst into flames upon impact. Video footage showed survivors crawling from the wreckage. Of the 67 people on board, 29 survived, many with visible injuries.

One survivor recounted to Russian TV that the pilot had attempted two landings in dense fog before “something exploded… some of the aircraft skin had blown out” during a third attempt.

Investigation underway

Kazakh authorities have recovered the flight data recorder, and a formal investigation is ongoing. Early reports from Russian state-controlled media suggested a bird strike as a potential cause. However, aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia dismissed this theory, noting that bird strikes typically allow planes to glide toward the nearest airfield rather than causing erratic behavior.

Justin Crump of Sibylline, a risk advisory firm, proposed that damage patterns on the plane were consistent with a missile detonation. Crump told BBC Radio 4, “It looks very much like the detonation of an air defense missile to the rear and to the left of the aircraft.”

Azerbaijan’s pro-government AnewZ channel reported that preliminary findings indicated the plane was hit by shrapnel from a Russian Pantsir-S missile. Azerbaijani authorities stated that all possibilities, including this theory, are under review.

Regional context

The crash occurred amid heightened tensions in the region. Chechnya has recently experienced drone strikes linked to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with neighboring Ingushetia targeted for the first time. In North Ossetia, a drone strike on a shopping center earlier this month killed one person.

Azerbaijan observed a national day of mourning on Thursday. President Ilham Aliyev called the crash “a great tragedy and a tremendous sorrow for the Azerbaijani people.”

Most of the passengers on board were Azerbaijani nationals, with others hailing from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Seven injured passengers were reported to be in stable condition and returned to Baku on Thursday.

Azerbaijan Airlines confirmed that the Embraer 190 aircraft had undergone full servicing in October and reported no technical issues. Manufactured by Brazilian firm Embraer, the plane has a strong safety record, further deepening the mystery surrounding the incident.

Authorities in both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are committed to uncovering the exact circumstances behind the tragedy.