Why a win against Ethiopia is crucial for Amavubi in football rankings  

Muha J.

Just this weekend, Amavubi will be playing Ethiopia in the CHAN 2018 qualifiers return leg at Nyamirambo Stadium on Sunday.

Going into the game this weekend, the Wasps have a better advantage to qualify to Morocco for CHAN 2018 over the opponents having registered a 3-2 victory away in Addis Ababa last weekend.

A ticket to Morocco will also raise the Amavubi rankings in the November 2018 Global football rankings. To examine statistics, our sports analysist Muha shows why it matters and what do that even mean?

In the last two month, Rwanda remained static in the same 118th position with 268 points international out of the 209 FIFA Member Associations; the reason is that of unavailability of competitive matches.

The Global Rankings from January to October 2017

Exhibit A: From highest ranking to the lowest

2017 Rankings
March 93
January 93
February 100
April 117
May 118
October 118
September 118
August 119
July 127
June 128

 

In January and March this year, Rwanda climbed to 93rd worldwide, the best before November, while the worst drop was in June and Julydropped to 128th and 127th respectively. The team

Rwanda lost Central Africa Republic 2-1 in the AFCON tournament game played on June 11,2017, then later drew away in Tanzania 1-all a week later before drawing goalless in the return leg played in Kigali.

Then in August dropped eight places to 119th, Amavubi defeated Sudan 2-1 but that is a friendly which does not fetch more points in the rankings, it then lost to Uganda, Cranes 3-1 in the first leg of the qualifiers but later came back to win 2-0 however because of 3-2 goal aggregate the team never qualified through not until Egypt withdrew for CAF to decide on play-offs.

Apparently, Amavubi is ranked 118th worldwide, with 273 points behind Malawi which dropped -1 last month to position 118th.

So what? How does FIFA arrive at these point totals? Well, after scouring to try and find solving some middle-school-level math equations, this is how it all works.

A win for Amavubi in any international game or confederation raises the position of a country in the global and continental rankings.

The basic logic of these calculations is simple: Amavubi does well in the qualifiers in world football wins points which enable it to climb the world ranking.

A team’s total number of points over a four-year period is also determined by adding: The average number of points gained from matches during the past 12 months; and the average number of points gained from matches older than 12 months (depreciates yearly).

How the calculation of points for a single match works:

The number of points that can be won in a match depends on the following factors: Was the match won or drawn? (M), how important was the match (ranging from a friendly match to a FIFA World Cup match) and lately how strong was the opposing team in terms of ranking position and the confederation to which they belong? (T and C).

These factors are brought together in the following simple formula to ascertain the total number of points (P). The formula is very simply: P = M x I x T x C.

M: Points for match result.

Teams gain 3 points for a victory, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a defeat. In a penalty shoot-out, the winning team gains 2 points and the losing team gains 1 point.

For the importance of the match, a friendly match (including small competitions): I = 1.0, the FIFA World Cup qualifier or AFCON confederation-level qualifier: I = 2.5 while CAF Confederation-level final competition or FIFA Confederations Cup: I = 3.0.

T: Strength of opposing team

The strength of the opponents is based on the formula: 200 according to International football governing body– the ranking position of the opponents, as an exception to this formula, the team at the top of the ranking is always assigned the value 200 and the teams ranked 150th and below are assigned a minimum value of 50.

C: Strength of CAF confederation

When calculating matches between teams from different confederations, the mean value of the confederations to which the two competing teams belong is used.

The strength of a confederation is calculated on the basis of the number of victories by that confederation at the last three FIFA World Cup competitions (see the following page).

So what? How does FIFA arrive at these point totals? Well, after scouring to try and find solving some middle-school-level math equations, this is how it all works.

A win for Amavubiin any international game or confederation raises the position of a country on the global and continental rankings.

The basic logic of these calculations is simple: Amavubi does well in the qualifiers in world football wins points which enable it to climb the world ranking.

A team’s total number of points over a four-year period is also determined by adding: The average number of points gained from matches during the past 12 months; and the average number of points gained from matches older than 12 months (depreciates yearly).

How the calculation of points for a single match works:

The number of points that can be won in a match depends on the following factors: Was the match won or drawn? (M), how important was the match (ranging from a friendly match to a FIFA World Cup match) and lately how strong was the opposing team in terms of ranking position and the confederation to which they belong? (T and C).

These factors are brought together in the following simply formula to ascertain the total number of points (P). The formula is very simply: P = M x I x T x C.

M: Points for match result.

Teams gain 3 points for a victory, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a defeat. In a penalty shoot-out, the winning team gains 2 points and the losing team gains 1 point.

For the importance of match, a friendly match (including small competitions): I = 1.0, the FIFA World Cup qualifier or AFCON confederation-level qualifier: I = 2.5 while CAF Confederation-level final competition or FIFA Confederations Cup: I = 3.0.

T: Strength of opposing team

The strength of the opponents is based on the formula: 200 according to International football governing body– the ranking position of the opponents, as an exception to this formula, the team at the top of the ranking is always assigned the value 200 and the teams ranked 150th and below are assigned a minimum value of 50.

C: Strength of CAF confederation

When calculating matches between teams from different confederations, the mean value of the confederations to which the two competing teams belong is used.

The strength of a confederation is calculated on the basis of the number of victories by that confederation at the last three FIFA World Cup competitions (see following page).

Apparently Amavubi is ranked 118th worldwide, with 273 points behind Malawi which dropped -1 last month to position 117.

That was different in August; Rwanda was ranked 119thglobally because they had lost to Uganda 3-0 in the first leg of CHAN qualifiers at Amahoro stadium, but later won 2-0 at Amahoro stadium losing on 2-3 on goal aggregate.

Amavubi’s largest drop in the last ten months was September this year according to Exhibit Awhen the team dropped 34 places. The reason is because the team did not play any competitive game.

Exhibit B: Number of places dropped in the last ten months this year.

Months                                Positionsdropped
March 24
April 26
Jan 23
Feb 25
May 26
June 26
July 26
August 29
September 34
October 26

 

Exhibit B1: The graphical bar chart shows June was the worst drop to 128th for Rwanda this year, in July it was placed (127th) in the rankings.

In June, Amavubi lost one game, drew twice; against Central African Republic 2-1 on June 11, 2017, in the 2019 AFCON qualifiers then later drew with neighbors Tanzania 1-all in the first leg of the CHAN qualifiers on July 15, 2017, before drawing goalless at a week later in the return leg.

Taking into consideration 2015 saw Amavubi attain the highest climb to 68th position in December, having played nine FIFA International Games, winning three, losing one and drawing five times moving 21 places in June. In 2014, it only dropped -4 positions to 68th worldwide having played six international games, winning half of them, drawing two and only losing one.

While the worst drop came in 2001 January, when Rwanda was ranked 134th on the global, it never moved having played five games winning three and suffering from a defeat as well as a draw.

Exhibit C:

Year Rankings Best Ranking Worst Rankings Best move+ Month Worst Move- Month Matches played Wins Defeats Draws
2001 134 128 134 0 January -4 May 5 3 1 1
2002 130 130 133 12 March -1 March 7 3 3 1
2003 109 104 126 9 July -4 November 12 4 4 4
2004 99 97 109 9 February -2 June 15 4 7 4
2005 89 89 106 17 December -5 July 11 4 5 2
2006 121 90 121 3 September -9 July 10 2 5 3
2007 99 99 122 20 December -10 July 11 6 4 1
2008 78 78 115 19 July -10 January 7 4 2 1
2009 102 83 117 8 December -17 July 15 4 9 2
2010 132 105 132 2 March -9 November 6 0 5 1
2011 106 106 143 31 October -12 June 11 7 1 2
2012 134 105 134 5 September -14 June 9 2 4 3
2013 133 127 137 7 February -6 December 14 4 9 3
2014 68 68 134 22 December -4 February 6 3 1 2
2015 64 64 101 16 July -21 June 9 3 5 1
2016 92 85 121 14 September -16 June 11 4 5 2
159 57 70 33

 

Exhibit D: Pivatol bar graph shows from the highest ranking to the worst drop of Rwanda in the global rankings between 2001 to 2016.

Exhibit E:Graphically bar exhibit shows the Rwanda global rankings from 2001-2016

According to the Exhibit D, 2001 the rankings of Rwanda from 1995 to October 2017 before the CHAN 2018 qualifiers against Ethiopia this weekend, a victory for Rwanda will see the team move having qualified to Morocco next year.

Exhibit F: Graphical trend line of Rwanda’s global football rankings since 1995 to 2017 October.

 

 

 

 

 

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Elias Hakizimana

Elias Hakizimana, CEO&Founder of The Inspirer Ltd,(www.rwandainspirer.com) is a professional Rwandan Journalist with Bachelor’s Degree in Journalism and Communication, received from University of Rwanda’s College of Arts and Social Sciences (CASS) in 2014. He served various media houses in Rwanda including Rwanda Broadcasting Agency (RBA) in 2013 and became passionate with English Online and Print Media Publications where he exercised his talent as a Freelance News Reporter for The New Times, The Independent, The Rwanda Focus, Panorama and more before he became a Self-Entrepreneur as the CEO and Founder of The Inspirer Limited in early 2017.

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